Global Market Impacts
Oil & Energy Surge
Global crude prices jumped sharply—up ~7% after the initial Israeli strikes on June 13, later reaching ~11–13% gains.This in turn lifted upstream energy stocks like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Santos (Australia), Woodside and ONGC.
Equities Dip, Risk-Off Sentiment
- U.S. stock futures turned slightly negative; global equities pulled back, with Dow futures falling ~600 points and the S&P 500 down ~1.1% .
- European airline shares—e.g. Lufthansa, Air France, EasyJet—slumped ~3–5% amid disrupted airspace.
- Gulf markets also declined as regional risk perceptions rose.
Safe-Haven Rotation
- Investors rotated into gold (prices up ~1%+), the U.S. dollar, and defensive assets like Treasuries.
Volatility Spike
- The CBOE VIX index hit 3-week highs as markets grappled with headline risk in Indian Market Fallout
Energy Producers Ride the Wave
- Domestic upstream players ONGC and Oil India saw their stock prices surge by up to ~3% on June 16, mirroring global crude price momentum.
Pressure on Downstream & Tyres
- OMCs (Oil Marketing Companies) and tyre manufacturers faced headwinds, as cost inflation for crude trickled downstream.
Dalal Street on Alert
- Indian analysts warned that further escalation could unsettle broader indices. But the benchmark TA‑35 in Israel showed resilience, implying a degree of market calm.
Breakdown: Impact by Sector
Sector Immediate Effect
1. Upstream Oil & Energy Benefitted – rising crude drove strong performance
2. Oil Marketing / Refineries Adversely affected – raw material costs higher
3. Airlines / Travel Hurt – airspace closures and higher fuel costs weigh heavily
4. Defense & Aerospace Mixed – some global defense plays gained; others saw caution.
5. Safe-Haven Assets Strengthened – gold, USD, Treasuries attracted flows
What This Signals for Investors
- Short-term volatility is likely to persist—surges in oil and hostilities increase risk aversion.
- Energy plays remain strong bets while the conflict continues, but downstream businesses could face margin pressure.
- Geopolitical sensitivity means market swings may be headline-driven: any signs of de-escalation could quickly reverse current trends.
- Indian markets will remain linked to global trends—especially through oil-import-sensitive sectors and defensive rotations.
Key Takeaway
The Israel–Iran conflict has triggered a classic “risk‑off” market environment:
Upstream oil stocks have benefited from spiking crude prices.
2.Safe‑havens (gold, bonds, USD) have gained momentum.